Headed to Hyperinflation, Recession? 3rd World Inflation Nos

Headed to Hyperinflation, Recession? 3rd World Inflation Nos

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Table of Contents

Inflation, hyperinflation, recession, and war. Before looking at the world around us, let us mention a few words on the forex trade progress. The forex trading week has been kind to me so far. Not to water down what I had learned over 5 years in demo trading, but forex lessons from real money accounts slap differently. Coupled with proper journaling, OH!

Anyway, as we had learned before, forex trading or any financial speculative activity has to go hand in hand with news following (fundamental and sentimental analysis). I am very happy with my technical analysis (evidenced by my trade entries that seem to improve every day) but the news/sentiment can really ruin one’s day.

The hottest news item currently (which is very unfortunate and very avoidable) is the Ukraine-Russia war. 99% of the news is this war where there is a lot of glorification of participation in the war. The volunteers to the war on both sides are glorified depending on which media house is reporting on the recruitment/volunteering.

Since denouncing the war will only serve as a promotion of the war. Today, the focus will be on another more important thing that we should be striving to control, Inflation, Hyperinflation, and Recession.

Hyperinflation in G7?

The USA recently reported inflation of 7.5%, its highest inflation report in 40 years (1982). In my country, a 3rd-world country in Africa where the ‘big media’ see us as ‘shithole’ most of the time, the inflation is 5%.

Sure 7.5% is very far to be considered hyperinflation, but then again, considering we are talking about the ‘free world’, the USA could just as well be considered the Zimbabwe of the G7 counties… hehe

The ‘schoolyard fighters’ on the other hand are safe to say they are on ‘hyperinflation’ (a pinch of salt considering these are 1st/2nd world countries). Russia’s inflation is at around 20%, while Ukraine’s is at 10.7%.

In this post, we will not go into too much depth on inflation but just mention a few pointers. I will for sure hook you up with links on more explanation of the economic terms.

Inflation

Inflation can be defined as the rising prices of commodities. When inflation rises, the value of the currency goes down leading to high costs of living. Inflation is a quantifiable measure of the pace at which buying power erodes over time, as measured by the increase in the average price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy.

Why does the price of goods and services increase?

As a currency’s value declines, prices rise and it buys less. This loss of purchasing power affects the general cost of living, slowing economic growth. Economists agree that sustained inflation happens when a country’s money supply grows faster than its economy.

Powell-Activated
Powell-Activated.

Individual product price changes are easy to track, but human requirements go well beyond that. To live comfortably, people require a wide range of items and services. Services like healthcare, entertainment, and labor are examples of commodities.

Inflation measures the entire impact of price increases across a wide range of goods and services and provides a single value representation of the rise in prices over time.

While typing the words above makes me think how the rising inflation is proving to be a tough nut to crack and all efforts should go towards that. No, tanks, bombers, cyberhacking, frontline martyrdom, etc are the way to go.

Since I am not an economist, my summary on inflation ends here. I can summarize more and make things worse. Get more in-depth info on inflation here.

Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation is defined as quick, excessive, and uncontrollable general price increases. While inflation is a measure of growing costs for goods and services, hyperinflation is a rapid rise in prices, usually over 50% per month.

Although hyperinflation is rare in industrialized economies, it has occurred in China, Germany, Russia, Hungary, and Argentina.

One might accuse me of being sensationalist mentioning hyperinflation, but, I will refer you to a few words in the above definition.

USA Inflation
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UK Inflation
Ukraine Inflation
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Russia inflation — Reported to be 20% In Mar 2022

Recession

A recession is a macroeconomic phrase that refers to a considerable fall in a region’s overall economic activity. Historically, it was defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, as measured by GDP and monthly indications such as an increase in unemployment.

However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially proclaims recessions, has stated that two consecutive quarters of real GDP drop is no longer considered a recession. The NBER defines a recession as a prolonged period of a considerable drop in economic activity across the economy, as measured by real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

Like the 2 earlier mentioned (inflation and hyperinflation), the recession seems like a handful. Now as citizens of the world we should juggle, Corona, Inflation/Hyperinflation, recession, and War. Wow!

We are the folks who select the most difficulty in gaming.

We are in for a ride guys. It’s about to go down. Anyhoo, ‘we’ have decided, so let us wait for the consequences.

I have already filtered my economic calendar and I can see a number of CPI releases, GDP, Central Bank Statements, and employment data. Can’t wait to see the developments.

How Was The Trading?

I cannot complain about my trading week. I have learned how to decrypt Big Media/ Fake News (cough!cough!, excuse me, news with an agenda), I sourced many news sources, etc. Basically, I am improving on my fundamental/sentimental analysis.

Fake News sounds like words that would come from a small angry man, but one can be angry. I mean, I think I am right to say what most people mean by fake news in the ‘Big Media’, is news that is reported with extra agenda/opinions/feelings.

Such a statement coming from a blogger sounds like someone shooting himself/herself in the foot, but no, news should be reported as is, and if the news anchor has extra opinions on particular news, they should later express it in their own channels, separate from the ‘Big Media’ facilities. Just my two cents.

AUDCAD Sell

In my last post, I had talked about the trade entry above. The trade has continued to go my way. Happy with the trades so far.

AUDCAD

Currently positive 1710 points and steadily moving towards the take profit.

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AUDCAD Sell

EURCHF and GBPCHF Buy

The trades are going at a much slower pace. But since the trades are still to be considered counter-trend trades, I am happy with the slow but steady pace.

The consideration as counter-trend trades is because both currency pairs are below the Kumo cloud. Eur and GBP also saw significant shorting when the stupid war began.

Since they are counter trades, the entries were informed by 4-hour charts. The new trade ideas were of course to start appearing in the 4 hours, then daily then weekly.

  • Price was above the CPR (What is CPR? Central Pivot Point)
  • QQE, BBSqueeze, and Time segmented volume (TSV) were all signaling long trades.

EURCHF is currently positive 850 points while GBPCHF is currently positive 530 points.

EURCHF 4-H Buy
hyperinflation
GBPCHF 4-H Buy

AOB — Finishing

The news subject that will be guiding my fundamental analysis will be inflation, hyperinflation, recession, and sadly the stupid war.

Hoping the inflation situation will be controlled and won’t spiral to hyperinflation (but Russia is flirting with hyperinflation — what do you think? 20% inflation, with a war???).

A recession seems like is more probable\, with corona effects still in the air and the new developments.

I will finish today. Hope to see your thought on the topics today.

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